Do not sell your gas vehicle yet

[abslayer]

Do not sell your gas vehicle yet

Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris
Jan 15, 2022

The utility companies have thus far had little to say about the alarming cost projections to operate electric vehicles (EVs) or the increased rates that they will be required to charge their customers. It is not just the total amount of electricity required, but the transmission lines and fast charging capacity that must be built at existing filling stations. Neither wind nor solar can support any of it. Electric vehicles will never become the mainstream of transportation!

The problems with electric vehicles (EVs), we showed that they were too expensive, too unreliable, rely on materials mined in China and other unfriendly countries, and require more electricity than the nation can afford. In this second part, we address other factors that will make any sensible reader avoid EVs like the plague. EV Charging Insanity

In order to match the 2,000 cars that a typical filling station can service in a busy 12 hours, an EV charging station would require 600, 50-watt chargers at an estimated cost of $24 million and a supply of 30 megawatts of power from the grid. That is enough to power 20,000 homes. No one likely thinks about the fact that it can take 30 minutes to 8 hours to recharge a vehicle between empty or just topping off. What are the drivers doing during that time?

ICSC-Canada board member New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland describes why installing electric car charging stations in a city is impractical:

“If you’ve got cars coming into a petrol station, they would stay for an average of five minutes. If you’ve got cars coming into an electric charging station, they would be at least 30 minutes, possibly an hour, but let’s say its 30 minutes. So that’s six times the surface area to park the cars while they’re being charged. So, multiply every petrol station in a city by six. Where are you going to find the place to put them?”

The government of the United Kingdom is already starting to plan for power shortages caused by the charging of thousands of EVs. Starting in June 2022, the government will restrict the time of day you can charge your EV battery. To do this, they will employ smart meters that are programmed to automatically switch off EV charging in peak times to avoid potential blackouts.

In particular, the latest UK chargers will be pre-set to not function during 9-hours of peak loads, from 8 am to 11 am (3-hours), and 4 pm to 10 pm (6-hours). Unbelievably, the UK technology decides when and if an EV can be charged, and even allows EV batteries to be drained into the UK grid if required. Imagine charging your car all night only to discover in the morning that your battery is flat since the state took the power back. Better keep your gas-powered car as a reliable and immediately available backup! While EV charging will be an attractive source of revenue generation for the government, American citizens will be up in arms.

Used Car Market

The average used EV will need a new battery before an owner can sell it, pricing them well above used internal combustion cars. The average age of an American car on the road is 12 years. A 12-year-old EV will be on its third battery. A Tesla battery typically costs $10,000 so there will not be many 12-year-old EVs on the road. Good luck trying to sell your used green fairy tale electric car!

Tuomas Katainen, an enterprising Finish Tesla owner, had an imaginative solution to the battery replacement problem—he blew up his car! New York City-based Insider magazine reported (December 27,2021): “The shop told him the faulty battery needed to be replaced, at a cost of about $22,000. In addition to the hefty fee, the work would need to be authorized by Tesla…Rather than shell out half the cost of a new Tesla to fix an old one, Katainen decided to do something different… The demolition experts from the YouTube channel Pommijätkät (Bomb Dudes) strapped 66 pounds of high explosives to the car and surrounded the area with slow-motion cameras…the 14 hotdog-shaped charges erupt into a blinding ball of fire, sending a massive shock wave rippling out from the car…The videos of the explosion have a combined 5 million views.”

We understand that the standard Tesla warranty does not cover “damage resulting from intentional actions,” like blowing the car up for a YouTube video.

EVs Per Block In Your Neighborhood

A home charging system for a Tesla requires a 75-amp service. The average house is equipped with 100-amp service. On most suburban streets the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a single Tesla. For half the homes on your block to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly overloaded.

Batteries

Although the modern lithium-ion battery is four times better than the old lead-acid battery, gasoline holds 80 times the energy density. The great lithium battery in your cell phone weighs less than an ounce while the Tesla battery weighs 1,000 pounds. And what do we get for this huge cost and weight? We get a car that is far less convenient and less useful than cars powered by internal combustion engines. Bryan Leyland explained why:

“When the Model T came out, it was a dramatic improvement on the horse and cart. The electric car is a step backward into the equivalence of an ordinary car with a tiny petrol tank that takes half an hour to fill. It offers nothing in the way of convenience or extra facilities.”

Our Conclusion

The electric automobile will always be around in a niche market likely never exceeding 10% of the cars on the road. All automobile manufacturers are investing in their output and all will be disappointed in their sales. Perhaps they know this and will manufacture just what they know they can sell. This is certainly not what President Biden or California Governor Newsom are planning for. However, for as long as the present government is in power, they will be pushing the electric car as another means to run our lives. We have a chance to tell them exactly what we think of their expensive and dangerous plans when we go to the polls in November of 2022.

Dr. Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition and former Science Director of The Heartland Institute. He is an internationally renowned scientist, author, and speaker who has testified before Congress on dozens of occasions on environmental issues and consulted with nearly every agency of the national government and many foreign countries. After graduating from Princeton University at the age of 20 with a degree in Geological Engineering, he received the nation’s first Ph.D. in Groundwater Hydrology from the University of Arizona. He later became executive director of the National Association of Groundwater Scientists and Engineers.

Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition, and a policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He has 40 years of experience as a mechanical engineer/project manager, science and technology communications professional, technical trainer, and S&T advisor to a former Opposition Senior Environment Critic in Canada’s Parliament.

You do not need to have an advanced degree in mathematics to understand the term “Overload”! The average person, no matter where you live, can quickly identify the political feel-good sensation that is being attempted by those short sighted individuals who are promoting the EV revolution….Vehicle manufacturers, Charging station builders, Transmission Line contractors, Battery producers….etc. “It’s Magic”….and you are saving the planet by creating less pollution as you get rid of your gas burning vehicle and take out a five year loan to pay for the shiny new $60,000 electric car. No more fill-ups at the service station and the global warming is solved. You can now sit back and imagine the new polar ice formations that are providing a safe environment for the Polar Bears, Seals, Penguins that we all adore. We have done our part saving humanity…..and you can see the smile on little Greta Thunberg’s face! BUT WAIT….why are we losing power at our house?

Well the short answer is….We failed to understand that our electrical grid reached max capacity and was overloaded when all of the EV’s were plugged in tonight at the same time. The next short answer is…..where do you think the energy came from to supply the grid in the first place? It sure was not from Wind or Solar….nor from any other alternate energy source we use which, when all combined, only provides 7% of today’s use demand. It was from the traditional combustible resource called Hydrocarbons!

Until we discover a non-hydrocarbon energy source that is efficient and safe, GET OVER IT….we are committed to Oil & Gas!

[Daryl]

Well prepared "document".
AOC is going to "sell" her Tesla, even though it is the only EV that can get her from home to DC on 1 1/2 charges. The others on the market
require 2 or more charges. I think she has to travel 150 miles.
She is selling her Tesla because Elon Musk mocked her on Twitter. LOL

[Spaceman88]

Well prepared "document".
AOC is going to "sell" her Tesla, even though it is the only EV that can get her from home to DC on 1 1/2 charges. The others on the market
require 2 or more charges. I think she has to travel 150 miles.
She is selling her Tesla because Elon Musk mocked her on Twitter. LOL

If she is only going 150 miles there are a few others that can handle that distance. The Ford Mach E can do well over 300 miles, the Bolt is around 260. There are also some very questionable "facts" in the document above like batteries will only last 4 years (they have an 8 or 10 year warranty) and the thing about overloading the neighborhood power supply with 3 Teslas, most people are just using 240v clothes dryer type outlets and charge at night when the demand is lowest. I haven't seen any bans on dryers or electric stoves because of power shortages. Not that there aren't real issues with electric cars (like high cost to buy).

[abslayer]

The big thing they make out about E cars is there low carbon foot print

I read a a report on carbon foot prints and the difference and assuming both cars were driven to 200,000 miles
The thing is the carbon input on making of battery packs sets it apart as more carbon inputs at point of manufacturer than gas
And guess what at that point of manufacturing E car wins but at the 200.000 mile point and the life of cars in the end gas car wins as over all less carbon input
And it all has to do with battery replacement and all the carbon to producing Elasticity to charge E cars

[Daryl]

I was just repeating what she said - 1 1/2 charges to drive from her house to DC. I guessed at the 150 miles - I don't know where she lives.
She said that ALL the others needed more than 2 charges - so- is she lying? Likely, she's a politician.
Warranties usually don't cover "wear-out" items as in clutches & brakes - maybe batteries as well?

[sillymike]

It's not as much as "saving the planet" as it is to create a new market... and have everyone dependent on the gov.
- Because nationalizing oil cie in a democracy would be frowned upon

[Spaceman88]

The big thing they make out about E cars is there low carbon foot print

I read a a report on carbon foot prints and the difference and assuming both cars were driven to 200,000 miles
The thing is the carbon input on making of battery packs sets it apart as more carbon inputs at point of manufacturer than gas
And guess what at that point of manufacturing E car wins but at the 200.000 mile point and the life of cars in the end gas car wins as over all less carbon input
And it all has to do with battery replacement and all the carbon to producing Elasticity to charge E cars

Guess it depends on the report you read. Most I've seen say the Carbon footprint of making an EV is somewhere between 40-80% higher than a gas vehicle, but the breakeven point comes in as little as 8,000 to 15,000 miles (mostly depends on how "clean" the electricity is). Internal combustion is very inefficient (maybe 30%) so even if you burn coal to make the electricity, your emissions are drastically lower.

[Spaceman88]

It's not as much as "saving the planet" as it is to create a new market... and have everyone dependent on the gov.
- Because nationalizing oil cie in a democracy would be frowned upon

Not sure I understand that. Arn't you dependent on oil now? If you had Solar panels on your roof and drove an EV wouldn't you be independent?

[Daryl]

Not sure I understand that. Arn't you dependent on oil now? If you had Solar panels on your roof and drove an EV wouldn't you be independent?

If you had solar panels on your roof and drove an EV, you would not be producing enough power to charge the damn thing, as well as run your house. Still
dependent on oil and gas.
Solar panels will not heat a house in a Canadian winter, seems to me, so still dependent on gas/oil. What is the range of an EV in -30 weather?

[abslayer]

What is the range of an EV in -30 weather
That would be my concern also
E cars makes sense only in warm areas and big city's not Canada and parts of USA

[Daryl]

Just got this back from a friend on this very subject. He lives in Canmore, Alberta.
"And on top of all that the supposed economy of an EV is an illusion. When they pay for the charging it is just marginally cheaper
than fossil fuel which does not come close to compensating for the inconvenience and recharging anxiety (a term I got from an
EV owner) encountered when trying to get anywhere in an EV.

As well, even SouthWestern Ontario gets -30 nowadays, with this current "global warming".
The coldest it got from the 1950's to 1975, was -10F = -23C.

[Erie-Eyes]

Watch EV filling cost jump once governments start adding all the gasoline taxes that they they will be losing with no IC vehicles on the road. I don't think government is willing to accept a BIG reduction in revenue!

[sillymike]

Not sure I understand that. Arn't you dependent on oil now? If you had Solar panels on your roof and drove an EV wouldn't you be independent?

I guess, if you can have panels that supply a constant 10,000W
- And you still have the risk of the gov. remotely disabling your vehicle if you do something they don't like (like the honking-crowd did last spring...)

When calculating the range of your EV, take about 20-30% OFF
- As they don't recommend you charge past 95%... or go below 15%

[jckstrthmghty]

Change is good when it's slow and moderated. Battery tech and the infrastructure have a long way to go before EV's can be an ICE replacement for the masses however the writing is on the wall. May take 50+ years but that seems to be the trend. I have a few friends and collegues with EV's, they love them. There is quite a few in my neighborhood. House holds with multiple Teslas. Currently EV's are not cheaper than ICE's but never having to go to the gas station is a big deal. For me anyways. If Toyota made a EV Tundra it would be a done deal and I would rent and ICE for those longer road trips.

[rsterne]

When calculating the range of your EV, take about 20-30% OFF
- As they don't recommend you charge past 95%... or go below 15%

and then knock off another 30% as the battery approaches end of warranty (Tesla are guaranteed to deliver 70% at 8 yrs.).... That means in practical terms about half the advertised range, without using the heater or A/C, or climbing mountains, like to drive in BC....

Bob